The Death of Kim Jong Il

This afternoon while looking at the news online, I received shocking news: Kim Jong Il has died. He died Saturday, December 17 at the age of 69.

North Korea announced the death of the Dear Leader on the North Korean national news this afternoon. According to the news report, he had died of physical and mental over-work on a train. Most likely, it was the result of his severe stroke that he suffered from in 2008. The reporter was wearing a black Hanbok (which surprised me because traditional Korean mourning clothes are white) announced the news in an emotional address. His funeral will be next week, with this week being a time of mourning for the people.

The news came as a shock to the South. While many Koreans believed that his health was deteriorating quickly, he has been quite active, making a visit to Russia last summer for the first time in five years and a trip to China as well. He didn't look too well on the video of the Mass Games, limping up to the podium, but he was still very active in the North's politics.

The president of South Korea has set a high security alert today as we wait to see how the North reacts to the news. Many of my Korean friends were shocked by the news and seem more concerned about this than the attack on Yeonpyeong last year. I think the South understood Jong Il's motivations and reasoning for actions, so while he was hostile, they knew how to deal with him. It will be awhile until the South understands Jong Un, especially considering the fact that we didn't know anything about him two years ago.

The big question today is: What happens next for the two Koreas? With Jong Il dead, how will his son rule? I think the next few years will be very defining for North/South relations.

Kim Jong Un is not like his father. He does not appear as assertive and he is very young. Unlike his father, who slowly gained power and respect in the North's politics over the course of 10 years, Jong Un has gained ranking and influence in a very short span of time. Jong Il became the dictator around the age of 50, while his son is only about 28. As a result, it appears to most South Koreans that the people and leaders of North Korea do not respect Jong Un with the same devotion as his father. A fear of South Koreans is that the leaders of the North may not stand behind their new leader, resulting in chaos.

In addition, it appears that the people of the North are tiring of their government, especially with the recent famine this past summer. If the people of North Korea attempt to dispose of their government, I do not think Jong Un has enough dominance to contest it if he does not have his fathers advisers behind him. There could be a lot of unrest in the North if there is not unity of the people and advisers behind their new leader.

I fear that Jong Un may try to legitimize his place as leader by attacking the South at the start of next year. Of course this is just my first reactions and thoughts, so I am not making any predictions. It may be the case considering the Yeonpyeong attack seemed to be based solely on trying to unite the North when the devotion was waning.

I also worry that Jong Un may lose his grasp on power, and we will be faced with a more brutal communist leader much like the succession we saw with Lenin and Stalin in Russia. At least now we have known about Jong Un for a year, if we are faced with a new dictator, we will have to try to learn about him before we discover why he came to power by actions on his part.

I also believe that we are witnessing the beginning of the end for North Korea. I believe that the North will fall under Jong Un or his successor by brutal means. I think we will see this in the next ten years. The last time there was a pass of power, the North was in much better shape than they are now. Jong Un is not as good of a leader as his father, and to see how quickly and drastically the North deteriorated under his father is an indication of how bad things could get for the North. I pray that the South continues to earnestly protect themselves when the North attacks out of desperation and plan for unification, because I think it will happen very soon.